Forex market forecasting

Is it possible to predict the movement of currencies in the forex market or most of the time the market is controlled by chaos and panic? How accurate are the forecasts of analysts and sellers of trading signals? Do I trust the signals of Expert Advisors, indicators, and oscillators? Is it possible to look into the future based on fundamental and technical analysis? Can I create break-even strategies for forex trading?
These and many other questions persistently assail novice traders who are uncertain about entering the world of big money and limitless opportunities. Let’s try to understand these issues and determine the main reasons for the unsuccessful openings of most traders.
Analytics and trading signals
The biggest layer of forecasting in the forex market can be called all kinds of analytics from dealing centers, which try to predict the movement of currency pairs for the current or next day. The task, to put it mildly, is thankless. Because in short-term trading, it is very difficult to identify all the fundamental components, add technical analysis and make adjustments for market panic.
In addition, the analyst is the same person as we are. They may overlook some of the facts, make incorrect markings on the graph, or attach too much importance to some fact. In the end, he may simply have a serious quarrel with his wife the day before or suffer from stomach or lumbar pain while analyzing the market situation. And the employer requires the output of forex analytics every day. And even if the analyst himself has zero thoughts on the market, he still has to come up with some plausible version. But after all, a novice does not think about these “little things” while reading analytics but tries to absorb all the information about the expected movement. Trying to think with someone else’s head can lead to disastrous results.
Although most of the analytical forecasts are based on technical analysis, they are usually of little use. Often, forecasts are reduced only to recommendations to play on the rebound or breakdown of strong levels.
In addition, I have not yet seen analytics that describes the state of the market as a whole: in relation to stocks, indices, raw materials, and currencies themselves. And to describe a currency pair separately without understanding the overall picture of what is happening in the height of unprofessionalism.
Another interesting type of analytics is combined. Its essence is that several analysts of the company study the situation on the market and make a synthetic forecast that shows the degree of probability of the upcoming movement of the currency.
Using the example of Freshforex, we can show that their intraday fresh forecast is based on several types of technical analysis (quantum, wave, fibo, etc.) combined with fundamental analysis. Apparently, such a forecast has a better chance of success, although the accuracy of the forecast largely depends on the professionalism of the analysts themselves.
Unlike vague forex analytics, trading signals should give clear places to enter the market with goals (тейкtake profit) and shakshouka (stop loss). But such signals cost money. And in order not to lose your audience, the trader should give signals often enough. Intraday signals are much less accurate, which increases the risk of error. This means the load on the beginner’s deposit. And accordingly, the chance of draining the deposit.
As a rule, such projects do not last long. But if the sellers of trading signals have been making their forecasts successfully for a long time, then it would be much more logical to start a PAMM account in their place and recruit solid investors, rather than knock down a trifle from newcomers.
Expert Advisor and Indicator signals
All indicators, oscillators, and various Expert Advisors are designed to make life easier for a trader and reduce the time spent analyzing the market to a minimum. In no case do they replace it at the terminal, but they can give unambiguous signals for buying or selling any pair.
Trend indicators give signals to strengthen the market position. Flat-for flips and tracking overbought-oversold conditions (working off divs). But all of them are lagging and таймфреймахgive a lot of false signals on small timeframes. However, it is very convenient to use several different indicators to analyze medium-term positions.
More sophisticated indicators track and compare the strength and dynamics of multiple currencies on a single chart. This already provides a more complete picture of emerging trends in financial markets.
Recently, predicting financial markets using artificial neural networks has become increasingly popular.
Neural networks have a unique property of tracking subtle relationships in the studied data. No other known method allows you to do this.
The quality of the result still largely depends on you, but with the help of neural networks, you can effectively assess the probability of continuation of the trend, predict the probability of oscillatory movements after the trend and subsequent corrections, and track inter-market relationships.
However, do not forget that no neural network, even the best one, is able to predict the future price.
In addition, the use of neural networks should be combined with a money management strategy.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *